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A lesson on how to include volatility in setting for traders of the stock, futures, and forex markets.

In our last lesson we looked at determining how much you are willing to risk on any one trade as the first step in developing a successful money management strategy. Now that we have established this, in today’s lesson we are going to look at some of the different ways that you can then set your stop, which fit within this initial criteria.

As we learned in last lesson, risking more than 2% of total trading capital on any one trade is a major reason for the high failure rate of most traders. Does this mean that when setting a stop we should simply figure out how many points away from our entry represents 2% of our account balance and set the stop there? Well, traders could obviously do this and to be honest it would probably be a lot better than most of the other money management strategies I have seen, but there better ways.

Although many traders will look at other things in conjunction, having an idea of the historical volatility of the instrument you are trading is always a good idea when thinking about your stop loss level. If for instance you are trading a $100 stock which moves $5 vs. a $100 stock that moves $1 a day on average, then this is going to tell you something about where you should place your stop. As it is probably already clear here, all else being equal, if you put a stop $5 away on both stocks, you are going to be much more likely to be stopped out on the stock which moves on average $5 a day than you are with the stock that moves on average $1 a day.

While I have seen successful traders who get to know a list of the things they are trading well enough to have a good idea of what their average daily ranges are, many traders will instead use an indicator which was designed to give an overview of this, which is known as the Average True Range (ATR)

Developed by J. Welles Wilder the ATR is designed to give traders a feel for what the historical volatility is for an instrument, or very simply how much it moves. Financial instruments that exhibit high volatility move a lot, and traders can there fore make or lose a lot of money in a short period of time. Conversely, financial instruments with low volatility move a relatively small amount so it takes longer to make or lose money in them all else being equal.

As with many of the other indicators we have studied in previous lessons, Wilder uses a moving average to smooth out the True Range numbers. When plotted on a graph it looks as follows:

What you are basically seeing here is a representation of the daily movement of the EUR/USD. As you can see when the candles are longer (which represents large trading ranges and volatility) the ATR moves up and when the candles are smaller (representing smaller trading ranges and volatility) it moves down.

So with this in mind, the most basic way that traders use the ATR in setting their stops is to place their stop a set number of ATR’s away from their entry price so they have less of a chance of being knocked out of the market by “market noise”.

That’s our lesson for today. In tomorrow’s lesson we are going to look at how you can use volatility based stops in conjunction with another method traders use for setting stops based on technical levels so we hope to see you in that lesson.

As always if you have any questions or comments please leave them in the comments section below so we can all learn together and good luck with your trading!

Duration : 0:6:50

Technorati Tags: ATR, Averagetruerange, business, daytrade, finance, forex, futures, Howto, informedtrades, investing, market, money, stock, trade

In our last lesson we looked at the Hammer and Hanging Man Candlestick Chart Patterns. In today’s lesson we are going to look at two more reversal candlestick patterns which are known as the Morning and Evening Star.

The Morning Star

Pic

The Morning Start Candlestick Pattern is made up of 3 candles normally a long black candle, followed by a short white or black candle, which is then followed by a long white candle. In order to have a valid Morning Start formation most traders will look for a close of the third candle that is at least half way up the body of the first candle in the pattern. When found in a downtrend, this pattern can be a powerful reversal pattern.

What this represents from a supply demand situation is a lot of selling into the downtrend in the period which forms the first black candle, then a period of lower trading but with a reduced range which forms the second period and then a period of trading indicating that indecision in the market, which is then followed by a large up candle representing buyers taking control of the market.

Unlike the Hammer and Hanging Man which we learned about in our last lesson, as the Morning Star is a 3 candle pattern traders often times will not wait for confirmation from the 4th candle before entering the trade. Like those patterns however traders will look to volume on the third day for confirmation. In addition traders will look to the size of the size of the candles for indication on how big the reversal potential is. The larger the white and black candle and the further that the white candle moves up into the black candle the larger the reversal potential.

Chart

The Evening Star

The Evening Star Candlestick Pattern is a mirror image of the Morning Star, and is a reversal pattern when seen as part of an uptrend. The pattern is made up of three candles the first being a long white candle representing buyers driving the prices up, then a short white or black second candle representing indecision in the market, which is followed by a third black candle down which represents sellers taking control of the market.

The close of the third candle needs to be at least half way down the body of the first candle and as with the Morning Star most traders will not wait for confirmation from the 4th period’s candle to consider the pattern valid. Traders will look for increased volume on the third period’s candle for confirmation, the larger the black and white candles are and the further the black candle moves down the body of the white candle the more powerful the reversal is expected to be.

Chart Example

That’s our lesson for today. In our next lesson we are going to finish up our series on Candlestick patterns with a look at the Shooting Star and Inverted Hammer Candlestick Patterns.

Duration : 0:5:28

Technorati Tags: candlestick, daytrade, eveningstar, forex, futures, Howto, informedtrades, investing, money, morningstar, stockmarket, trade

A lesson on how most traders have unrealistic profit expectations which cause them to lose all their money and what realistic profit expectations are when trading the stock, futures or forex markets.

The first step in understanding and building a solid money management plan, the key component in successful trading, is setting realistic profit expectations. All too often I see people open trading accounts with balances of $10,000 or under expecting to make enough money to support themselves from their trading profits within a short period of time. After seeing all of the hype that is out there surrounding most trading education, trading signal services, etc it is no wonder that people think this is a reasonable goal, but that does not make it a realistic one.

As most any truly successful trader will tell you, the stock market has averaged somewhere in the neighborhood of 10% a year over the last 100 years. What this basically means is that if you would have invested in the 30 stocks that make up the Dow Jones Industrial Average, the index which is designed to represent the overall market, you would have earned about 10% on your money on average over the last 100 years. With this in mind, what most any truly successful trader will also tell you, is that if you can consistently double that return, on average, over the long term, then you will be considered among the best traders out there.

Duration : 0:5:58

Technorati Tags: business, daytrade, finance, forex, futures, Howto, informedtrades, investing, market, money, of, psychology, stock, trade, trading

In our last lesson we learned how many successful traders look for entry opportunities which allow them to set their stop so that there are multiple support or resistance points between their entry point and stop level, and few if any support or resistance points between their entry price and their target. In today’s lesson we are going to look at another factor that many traders use when deciding where to place their stops, the use of technical indicators.

As you hopefully remember from watching my previous lessons we have already covered two indicators and gone over specific strategies on how they can be used to set stops which are the Average True Range and the Parabolic SAR. While these indicators were designed specifically to help traders gauge where to place their stops, many of the other indicators which we have looked at using to pick trade entry points can also be used to decide when to exit a trade.

With this in mind the question then becomes, with all the options available how do you choose which indicator if any to look at when deciding when to exit a trade. Which indicator if any you choose to include in your money management strategy for setting stops is going to depend largely on the type of strategy that you are trading. As a general rule however if you use an indicator to signal for example a buy entry on a trade most traders will keep an eye on that same indicator and take into account when that same indicator signals to exit a trade.

As an example of this, lets say that your analysis of the ADX shows that the chart of x is about to start a nice trend and you decide to place a trade on that analysis. Using the knowledge you have gleaned from our lessons on stops so far you also pick a level for your stop which has some nice protection and is close enough that it fits within your two percent loss limit. During this trade however if the ADX which is the indicator you used primarily to enter the trade begins to signal that the trend is weakening and the market is about to range, should you remain in that trade? The answer to that question is going to depend on the strategy and what other things are going on in the market at the time, but I would say at minimum most successful traders would take this into account when deciding whether or not to continue with the position, regardless of whether their stop had been hit or not.

Lastly on this point there is one indicator that so many traders watch that many traders will at least keep an eye on what happens with this indicator and that is the 50 and the 200 day moving average. These indicators are in general thought to be representative of the overall trend in the market and a break above or below these levels and/or a crossing of the 50 day moving average above/below the 200 day moving average is normally seen as significant for a market and as such many traders will take this into account and place their stops accordingly.

As you probably have noticed when thinking about placing stops using indicators, as you don’t know where price is going to be when your indicator signals for a trade exit, you do not have a hard stop in the market, are in the very bad position of not being protected in your trade. This is why, as we have talked about many times in our other lessons, that if this method for setting stops is used it should always be used in conjunction with another method which allows you to set a hard stop and stays within the 2% loss limit rule we have established.

This concept of the stop being a sort of “moving target” is a nice lead in to our next concept and lesson where we are going to be talking about what is known as a trailing stop.

Duration : 0:7:30

Technorati Tags: business, daytrade, finance, forex, futures, Howto, informedtrades, investing, money, settingstops, stockmarket, trade

In our last lesson we learned about the Average Directional Index (ADX) an indicator which helps traders determine the strength of trends in the market. In today’s lesson we are going to look at another indicator called the Parabolic Stop and Reversal (Parabolic SAR), which helps traders enter and manage positions when trading those trends.

The Parabolic SAR is an indicator that, like Bollinger bands is plotted on price, the general idea of which is to buy into up trends when the indicator is below price, and sell into downtrends when the indicator is above price. Once traders are in positions the indicator also assists in managing the position by providing guidance as to how one should trail their stop.

Example of the Parabolic SAR

While this is an indicator that works very well in trending markets, as you can see from the below chart simply following the basic be long when the indicator is below price and be short when the indicator is above price will lead to many whipsaws in range bound markets.

Example of Whipsaws in Range Bound Markets

To combat this problem the developer of the indicator J. Welles Wilder (who also developed the RSI and ADX) recommended establishing the strength and direction of the trend first through the use of things such as the ADX, and then using the Parabolic SAR to trade that trend. As mentioned above although the Parabolic SAR is used for both entering and managing positions, it is used far more to set stops once in a position.

As with the other indicators we have covered in past lessons it is recommended to use this indicator in conjunction with other methods of analysis for confirmation not only on trade entry but also on trade exit.

Example:

That’s our lesson for today. While my lessons are by no means exhaustive on the subject this also concludes my series on technical indicators. If you are interested in learning more about the indicators that we have studies as well as some of the other indicators that traders use, I encourage you to visit the technical indicators section of informedtrades.com. In our next lesson we will finish up our series on technical analysis by taking a deeper look at candlestick chart patterns and how one can use these in their trading.

As always I encourage you to participate in the community by posting your comments and questions below, and have a great day!

Duration : 0:4:34

Technorati Tags: business, daytrade, finance, forex, futures, Howto, informedtrades, investing, market, oney, ParabolicSAR, stock, trade

Link to the formulas behind the ADX: http://hubpages.com/hub/ADX

Link to Additional Resources on Trading the ADX: http://www.informedtrades.com/4529-six-resources-help-you-trade-adx.html

In this lesson we are going to learn about the Average directional Index (ADX), an indicator which helps traders determine when the market is trending, when the market is ranging, when the market may be about to change from trending to ranging or vice versa, and to gauge the strength of the trend in the market.

When plotted below the chart the ADX Line is normally accompanied by two other lines which are known as the +DI and –DI Lines.

Example of the ADX:

I am not going to go into the formulas for the Indicator here however you do need to know that:

• The ADX line is composed of two other indicators which are known as the Positive Directional Index (+DI Line) and the Negative Directional Index (-DI Line).
• The +DI Line is representative of how strong or weak the uptrend in the market is.
• The –DI line is representative of how strong or weak the downtrend in the market is.
• As the ADX line is comprised of both the +DI Line and the –DI Line, it does not indicate whether the trend is up or down, but simply the strength of the overall trend in the market.

If you would like a deeper explanation of the computation of the indicator you can find it here: http://hubpages.com/hub/ADX

As the ADX Line is Non Directional, it does not tell you whether the market is in an uptrend or a downtrend (you must look to price or the +DI/-DI Lines for this) but simply how strong or weak the trend in the financial instrument you are analyzing is. When the ADX line is above 40 and rising this is indicative of a strong trend, and when the ADX line is below 20 and falling this is indicative of a ranging market.

So one of the first ways traders will use the ADX in their trading is as a confirmation of whether or not a financial instrument is trending, and to avoid choppy periods in the market where many find it harder to make money. In addition to a situation where the ADX line trending below 20, the developer of the indicator recommends not trading a trend based strategy when the ADX line is below both the +DI Line and the –DI Line.

Example:

Another way that traders use this indicator is to identify the potential start of a new trend in the market. Very simply here they will look from below the 20 line to above the 20 line as a signal that the market may be beginning a new trend. The longer the market has been ranging, the greater the weight that most traders will give this signal

Example:

Another way traders use the ADX is as a signal of trend reversals. When the ADX is trading above both the +DI line and the –DI line and then turns lower this is often a signal that the current trend in the market is reversing and traders will position themselves accordingly:

Example:

The final example that I am going to cover on how traders use the ADX is to position to trade long when the +DI crosses above the –DI (as this is a sign that the buyers are winning out over the sellers) and to position to trade short when the +DI line crosses below the –DI (as this is a sign that the sellers are winning over the buyers). As with the other crossover strategies that we have covered used alone, the DI crossover is prone to many false signals.

Example:

That completes our lesson for today. You should now have a good understanding of the ADX and several different ways that traders use this in their trading. In tomorrow’s lesson we are going to look at a new indicator which is called the Parabolic SAR, which many traders use to set stops when trading trends in the market.

Duration : 0:8:13

Technorati Tags: ADX, daytrade, finance, forexmarket, futuresmarket, informedtrades, investing, money, stockmarket, trading

We should now have a good understanding of how to spot trends in the forex market, stock market, and futures market. Now lets tie everything together we have learned thus far with the final concept of this series, Multi Time frame analysis.

No matter what time frame you end up using as a trader or what time frame a particular strategy calls for, it is important always to have a big picture overview of what is happening in the market. Although there are exceptions, in general most traders will tell you that if your trade setup or analysis lines up on multiple time frames, then the odds of being correct are greatly increased.

Duration : 0:3:42

Technorati Tags: business, daytrade, finance, forex, fututres, informedtrades, investing, money, stocks, trading

Duration : 0:3:57

Technorati Tags: analysis, business, daytrade, finance, forex, futures, how, informedtrades, investing, market, stock, technical, to

Duration : 0:5:26

Technorati Tags: analysis, daytrade, finance, forexmarket, Howto, informedtrades, investing, movingaverage, stockmarket, technical

Just as anything where market forces are at play, the price of a financial instrument in the stock, futures or forex markets is ultimately determined by supply and demand. Very simply, if demand is increasing in relation to supply then price will rise, and if demand is decreasing in relation to supply then price will fall.

As we have learned in previous lessons, what you are basically looking at when you see an uptrend on a chart is an extended period of time where demand has continued to increase in relation to supply. Similarly when looking at a downtrend you are seeing an extended period of time where demand has decreased in relation to supply for an extended period of time, causing price to fall. Similarly, in a downtrend, demand is continuously falling in relation to supply which causes the price of an instrument in the stock, futures or forex market to fall.

In this lesson we are going to look at something known as support and resistance which are price levels where the supply demand equation is expected to change, and price is then expected to stop moving in the direction it was moving previously, or reverse direction.

Duration : 0:4:35

Technorati Tags: business, daytrade, finance, forex, fututres, informedtrades, investing, money, stocks, trading